Bhaiya sabse badaa Rupaiya

A red flag was raised when Rupee breached the 60 to a dollar mark. While people were wondering if it might even fall to a level of 65, it actually fell freely to about 68. Now the doomsayers were out in swing – some even proclaiming Rupee will touch 100 to a dollar.

But in walked the new RBI governor, Raghuram Rajan with a slew of emergency reforms and yep the fall has been arrested and the currency has rebounded.  Click here to see the list of measures undertaken to contain the dollar outflow and bring in more of the FII and NRI money. Now, backing all these moves and reforms has been Chidambaram, the finest FM that India has ever produced.

I remember last year, Sensex was lazily hovering around 16000 and it was no coincidence that soon after Chidambaram was made the Finance Minister the markets started on a bull phase. What surprised me actually was why was he ever made the Home Minister? Whose stupid idea was that? Chidambaram = Finance Minister; it is like he can’t be anything else. And how could he ever be the home minister? That is such a flop idea. Anyhow fast forward to the present times. As soon as the Rupee started depreciating, instead of internal party bickering and blame game, he spurred into action. Yea, it could have gone very well in that direction what with proposed food security bill, the ongoing NREGA bill and other populist schemes announced by Mrs. Gandhi. But instead of all that, Chidambaram simply cut to the chase. Oil and gold imports came under the scanner and so also wooing the FII money along with a quick change of RBI governor post. 

Why was this so important? Actually the Rupee decline was far beyond the fundamentals – the Current account deficit has not undergone any sharp changes to warrant such a fall. Some Foreign funds fleeing the market in June – July 2013 triggered it and driven so much by sentiments, the currency markets overreacted. The ICU treatment of Rupee was essential as else it could have also led to a fall in Sensex and further fleeing of foreign funds. Financial markets most experience the dominoes effect. 

But that is where having a shrewd savvy and experienced FM helps. Chidambaram responded in a heartbeat and a series of reforms were initiated. Most were good although I’m not sure why he told people to not buy gold. You see there is a thing about “the people” – if you tell them not to do something, that is exactly they will do. So Gold prices surged as people started hoarding “more” Gold since they were “told” to buy “less”. But there you have it – “people wisdom” – the cornerstone of a democracy. If you do not catch my sarcasm here pls do read my book “Democracy on Trial, All Rise!”

But I digress; anyhow back to the issue, unchecked Rupee depreciation would have been catastrophic what with already slowing down economy. Next year is also an election year – everything requires funds, we all know that. So, bhaiya sabse badaa rupaiya and thanks to the “kick ass team” of  Chidambaram and Rajan, the rupee seems back in shape and I hope the recovery is here to stay.

Here is the story in pictures.

Rupee falls like a stone

Chidambaram worried – “People, please buy less Gold”

Therefore people buy more gold. 

Chidambaram to RBI governor Subbu - "I think the Rupee is gone and so should you"

In walks the dapper Raghuram Rajan (usually the RBI governors look like.. well Subbu)

"I predicted Subprime crisis; I don’t expect facebook likes but I’ll get the job done"

Rupee back in swing

Dr. Singh - "I will tell madam!"

Vanishing Community Centers?

So, after coming to Gurgaon I noticed a lot of “Community Centers” around. Curious about their use I explored some of them last year and found that most of them are really lent out as party halls for weddings and other functions. And some are even worse with broken glasses and in a dilapidated state – looking like bhoot banglas. 

Last year I met an old gentleman who fondly reminisced about a community center he used to go to in Bombay – playing cards, sharing tea, playing sports, discussing politics etc. was a daily evening affair. Sounded so idyllic to me - like the coffee house (or in the West, beer house) thing that I felt more people should be engaged in.

But such things are almost non existent nowadays.  In Gurgaon, I noticed some activity around the Leisure Valley Park – people gather for a laughter club, walking enthusiasts are always around, some book clubs meet at the few restaurants and even children come for school picnics. It is a rather small park with not much going on but that is about the only so called “live” community center I came across.

Mostly community life has disappeared from the urban milieu. Some functions are there in apartment complexes but are mostly on occasions. Then there are book clubs, wildlife clubs etc hobby groups which have a floating population.  Of course religious gathering are always there for the gossip oriented. But nowadays, mostly people like to meet and chat on Facebook and emails etc. The online technology world has taken over people’s social lives, though one could say it is a bit superfluous but so be it.

I know every generation says “in our times things were different” so I would say too - life was different when we were kids and so much technology did not exist. I remember post dinner, all the neighbors in our lane used to go together with all the children in a big bustling group to this park called pahadi walla park  (which had a tiny hill in the center and all the kids used to roll down it). This was almost a daily affair except for Wednesdays when Doordarshan used to relay Chitrahaar and Sundays when they used to relay a movie. But all such casual gatherings have disappeared from the supposedly fast paced modern urban life. Probably 24X7 electronic entertainment has a lot to do with it.

Do you think there is need for more community bonding and activities? (Even as I say it, I know it is a rhetorical question).

Here is a community center being inaugurated by Mrs Sheila Dikshit – I wonder what it would be used for. But the photo is relevant as I really started a post about her but got distracted by the word community center - as I have been wanting to write about it for a long time now.

2014 India Elections – the Stalwarts

1. Narendra Modi – The Autocrat

Most of Namo’s pics are in two poses – a V sign or a pointed finger – “Do as I say”.

The era of chest thumping speeches is here. Having gotten used to Dr. Singh’s lukewarm leadership and laidback style, suddenly the PM seat is looking hot and coveted. Mr. Modi is sure pulling all stops to become the PM and raring to go.

Ambition is partly a good thing and why not? People should want to become the PM of India – it ought to be a coveted job. Ambition could bring degree of passion to the job but on the flipside could also lead to over adventurism? Would there be polarization with state Chiefs. And we don’t know how he would affect the foreign policy – my guess is not too positively. But he could get the job done so far as the economy is concerned. With falling Rupee and weakening growth, that may be a good thing. While on the minorities front, he is defensive post all the criticism, would he curb the media? I wonder!

Narendra Modi is a polarizing figure – love him or hate him but you can’t ignore him. Well, BJP itself is not entirely behind him but would that matter? I think Namo is a vote puller and if he does get his boys to the finishing line, that is all that the BJP would care about eventually.

In terms of leadership style, he would be dictatorial.

2. Rahul Gandhi – the Democrat

  

There is a bit of ‘Swadesh’ touch to him, isn't it. He is most seen with the poor and the downtrodden, trying to awaken a spirit in them.

The crown prince, with no trace of neediness to get into the big boots, happy to mingle with the praja,  he is royalty indeed. I do think his motivation is to serve the people – don’t call me naïve, I really do believe that. However in terms of political Machiavelli, he would be nowhere but no worries, Rajmaata Sonia has enough of that.  He would better India’s foreign relations, will work well with the state leaders and would bring a certain youthful charisma to the job which again after Dr.Singh’s lukewarm presence would be a welcome change. There, I repeat myself though don’t get me wrong, I do respect Dr.Singh a lot but still it would be nice to get a younger more energetic PM who is young minus any rough edges – Rahul fits that to a tee. 

But expect nothing pathbreaking or new as Mrs. Gandhi will continue to pull all the strings. UPA will do more of the same – steady and even solid governance with no big surprises – positive or negative.

In terms of leadership style, Rahul Gandhi will be truly democratic.

3. The Third Front – “third” – really?

Now this motley bunch wanting to form some sort of a third front lack any focus or direction. Coming third will be aspirational for them actually. They are mostly state parties which have loyalty in their respective regions. Cumulatively they make up the nebulous ‘others’ and I see no change in that. If at all, as the battle between Congress and BJP keeps hotting up, I expect the ‘others’ to shrink a bit this time. That would be a good thing because national elections ought to be dominated by parties with national presence and not these regional players.  

4. Aam Admi party – the Non starter

While launched with much fanfare and rallies, winning seats to the parliament is a different ballgame altogether. They have already been heard grumbling that they do not have funds to advertise or give freebees to voters (that’s your aam admi) to reach them. Yes buddies, democracy elections are costly affairs. A lot of corruption is on account of that alone. So there.

But really my questions to them are different. What is 'Aam Admi against corruption?' They have defined it too narrowly as corruption only among the political class. If I may humbly submit, the Aam admi himself is corrupt. Most of the crime in our society (rapes murders robberies etc.) is done by the Aam admi. So, the party should broaden its horizon to bring in a sense of awakening and social responsibility in the Aam admi. Now that would be truly revolutionary. 

Anyhow, from the 2014 election perspective, a non starter; they don’t count.